After an exceptional 2023 for tourism in Spain, characterised by record levels of international arrivals, expenditure, overnight stays and domestic tourism, the figures for 2024 have exceeded expectations, with the best start to the year in the sector’s history. The tourism GDP is expected to grow by 5% in 2024, more than double the forecast for the economy as a whole. It is expected that Spain will receive more than 90 million international tourists, due to the recovery in the purchasing power of European families in a context of decreasing inflation, the economic reactivation in Europe and the perception of the greater security offered by Spain compared to other competing destinations.
Domestic tourism is expected to remain at all-time high levels, but with a more moderate growth compared to international tourism, since a reactivation of trips abroad by Spanish citizens is forecast. It is vital to ensure that the success of the sector does not impair the improvement in tourist flow management, in order to mitigate negative external effects that could arise and move towards a less seasonal and more sustainable tourism model.
2024 got off to a great start, particularly after a 2023 in which the Spanish economy grew by 2.5% in a context of the weak growth of the main European economies. During the first quarter of 2024, the Spanish GDP grew by 0.7% quarter on quarter, driven by a reactivation in investment and considerable growth in exports of tourist services, which experienced a quarter-on-quarter growth of 19.0%. This positive performance by the tourist industry is also reflected in the tourist service balance surplus, which represented 4.2% of GDP in March 224, compared to the 3.7% of the previous year (cumulative data over 12 months). This improvement, 0.5 pp above GDP, indicates that tourist exports have made a significant contribution to the improvement in Spain’s current account balance during the past year.
There is no doubt that the current dynamism of the Spanish economy is linked to the positive situation of the tourist industry. Following the excellent results of last year, all the tourist activity indicators point to accelerated growth during the first four months of 2024, exceeding the figures for the same period in 2023, which suggests strong growth for this year. According to our estimates, the tourism GDP contributed 0.9 pp to the annual growth of 2.5% in the Spanish GDP in 2023, and the 2024 forecast show a contribution of approximately 0.6 pp to the estimated growth of 2.4%, meaning that tourism GDP will thus account for 13.0% of total GDP.
International tourism marks the best ever start to the year…
International tourist arrivals
Variation with respect to same month of 2019
Latest update: January 2024
International tourist arrivals by market of origin
Millions of tourists from January to April 2024
